How Gold Trading Works
What actually moves gold, and the small number of ideas that decide whether a gold strategy survives contact with real costs.
What moves gold
Gold has no earnings and pays no coupon, so its price is largely a statement about the alternatives. Three forces dominate. Real interest rates: when inflation-adjusted yields rise, holding a non-yielding asset costs more, and gold tends to weaken. The US dollar: gold is priced in dollars, so dollar strength is a headwind mechanically, before any sentiment is involved. Risk appetite: gold attracts flows when investors want something outside the financial system, which is why it can rally on days when nothing in the rate picture has changed.
These operate on a horizon of weeks and months. Within a single trading day, gold's movement is mostly liquidity: where orders rest, which levels get reached, and which session is active. A day trader who tries to trade the macro story on a five-minute chart is usually just trading noise with a macro justification attached.
Risk is defined before reward
Every trade in this system begins with the level that proves it wrong. That distance — entry to stop — is one R. Results are then expressed as multiples of it: a trade that makes twice what it risked is +2R whether the account is $200 or $2,000,000.
This is not merely a convenient unit. It forces the question "where am I wrong?" to be answered before the question "how much could I make?", and it makes results comparable across days when gold moves $12 and days when it moves $60.
Volatility-sized stops
A fixed stop of, say, 300 points is a completely different bet in a quiet market than in a violent one. In the first it is a wide stop that will rarely be touched; in the second it is noise. Sizing the stop from a volatility measure — here, twice the 15-minute ATR — keeps the meaning of the stop constant even as its dollar value changes.
Costs decide more than most people expect
Gold's spread is wide relative to short-term movement. Measured round-trip friction on the simulated account behind this site is about 0.19R. That number is unforgiving: a strategy whose edge is 0.15R per trade is not a marginal strategy, it is a losing one. Any published result that does not subtract costs is describing a different game.
Why most of a strategy's work is in the exit
Entries get the attention, but the difference between a good and a bad month is usually how much of a winning move was kept. A trade that reaches +3R and closes at +0.2R is recorded as a small win and is actually a large failure. The metric for this is profit retention — realised result divided by the best the trade ever showed — and it is published for every signal on this site precisely because it is the number most systems quietly omit.
Continue with how liquidity shapes gold's intraday moves, or see how this system judges a setup.
Every figure on this page comes from a simulated account. Simulated results are a record of what a system did, not a promise of what it will do. Nothing here is investment advice, and no result is guaranteed.